“Imbalance Risk Forecast”: an innovative approach to solve short-term market arbitrage problems, running on N-SIDE Energy Forecasting Platform

N-SIDE Energy Imbalance Risk Forecast Transparency Dashboard 17/02/2022
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Ever wondered if artificial intelligence could support you fully in your arbitrage between day-ahead and imbalance markets?



N-SIDE has developed over the years expertise on electricity short-term markets, which has been translated into specific market arbitrage forecasts, giving recommendations to electricity market participants on the optimal position to take.

As an example, the Imbalance Risk Forecast (IRF) is focused on the day-ahead and imbalance markets in a specific country. Available in D-1 at the typical time of nomination (before 12.00 PM), the Imbalance Risk Forecast provides, for the 24 hours of the next day, an indication of the dynamics that can be expected regarding the level of imbalance prices, in comparison with day-ahead electricity prices. Armed with this tool, our customers can apply a nomination strategy that reduces their imbalance price risk. 

Concretely N-SIDE’s customers get access to a forecast providing a trinary recommendation, i.e. +1 (bullish), -1 (bearish), or 0 (neutral), with hourly granularity. The forecast and the historical performances are made accessible to the customer via a graphical user interface as well as an API connection.

N-SIDE also offers to its customers the possibility to analyze the results of the market arbitrage forecast to understand its performance over each week in a transparency dashboard. This allows them amongst others to understand the impact of the different drivers (consumption, wind, solar, temperature, residual load, …) on the recommendations, as well as the contribution of these recommendations to the overall savings.




Do you want to see what it looks like for the Imbalance Risk Forecast in Belgium?

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About the Author

With a background in Business Engineering and exposure to various advanced analytics start-ups, Michael is passionate about the energy sector and the development of innovative solutions to accelerate the energy transition. After putting a strong focus on the development of N-SIDE Energy activities towards different types of actors, he now has specific expertise in energy forecasting solutions for market participants. Michael now leads the Energy Forecasting Platform team at N-SIDE.

Michael Malcorps

View the dashboard